In the Ukraine conflict, this support would be world class, supplied by some of the most advanced militaries globally. Historically, the provision of tangible support, including weapons, logistics, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), have been major advantages to insurgents. It is crucial that Western nations continue to flood weaponry into Ukraine, including surface-to-air missile systems, unmanned aerial systems (UAS), and electronic warfare (EW) and cyber defense systems, as well as artillery, small arms, ammunition, and any other materiel the Ukrainians need to counter their adversaries. If the conflict does reach a stalemate and transition to an insurgency, Ukraine is well-positioned to fight, given its knowledge of the home terrain, outpouring of popular support, and pipeline of assistance from Western and NATO countries delivering sophisticated anti-tank and other weapons. Given the ferocity with which the Ukrainians have been fighting, it is clear that the population will not accept a puppet government installed by the Kremlin. On the contrary, most analysts believe that unless a ceasefire and subsequent peace deal are reached soon, the conflict will devolve into a long and bloody insurgency. However, Ukrainians have fought back valiantly and few believe this conflict will end anytime soon. Russian troops have laid siege to various cities in Ukraine, shelling civilian targets and conducting indiscriminate bombings with no concern for collateral damage or sites protected under international humanitarian law. There are also concerns that, should a full-blown insurgency develop and then drag on, Russia could deploy covert operatives to commit terrorist attacks on European soil.Īs the Russian military continues its advance on Ukraine’s capital city, Kyiv, Ukraine’s military and legions of volunteer fighters are falling back in defensive positions. CIA paramilitary units and elements of SOCEUR can be force multipliers to the Ukrainian insurgency without ever having to step foot on Ukrainian soil, instead operating from Poland or other NATO countries in Eastern Europe.If the conflict does transition to an insurgency, Ukraine is well-positioned to fight, given its knowledge of the home terrain, outpouring of popular support, and pipeline of assistance from Western countries delivering sophisticated weapons.Most analysts believe that unless a ceasefire and subsequent peace deal are reached soon, Russia’s war in Ukraine will devolve into a long and bloody insurgency.
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